Garrard County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 30th
Garrard County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 30.2, 30th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Garrard County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 30.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 30th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Garrard County's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $666K in expected annual loss and about 6.56 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $285K in expected annual loss and about 3.33 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $98K in expected annual loss and about 0.88 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 17K.
Beyond physical exposure, Garrard County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Garrard County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 9 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Garrard County ranks #82 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.56 / yr | $666K |
| Hail | Low | 3.33 / yr | $285K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.88 / yr | $98K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.47 / yr | $60K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.11 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Low | 52.28 / yr | $165K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $185K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.00 / yr | $611K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $31K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $512 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.82 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Low | 2.87 / yr | $22K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.58 / yr | $88K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Garrard County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Severe Ice Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Garrard County?
Garrard County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 30.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 30th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Garrard County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $666K EAL), Hail (Low, $285K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $98K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Garrard County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Garrard County ranks #82 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Garrard County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Garrard County since 1993, most often 9 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Garrard County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.