Fleming County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 31th
Fleming County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 31.0, 31th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Fleming County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 31.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 31st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $818K in expected annual loss and about 4.25 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $940K in expected annual loss and about 0.15 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $1K in expected annual loss and about 0.61 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fleming County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Fleming County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 13 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Fleming County ranks #80 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.25 / yr | $818K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.15 / yr | $940K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $1K |
| Lightning | Low | 50.61 / yr | $172K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.16 / yr | $42K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $173K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.43 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | Low | 3.20 / yr | $124K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.79 / yr | $146K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $16K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.57 / yr | $30K |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.77 / yr | $16K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $164K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fleming County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Severe Ice Storm (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| November 2024 | Tropical Storm | Remnants of Hurricane Helene |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslide |
| May 2015 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fleming County?
Fleming County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 31.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 31th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fleming County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $818K EAL), Tornado (Low, $940K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $1K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fleming County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Fleming County ranks #80 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fleming County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Fleming County since 1978, most often 13 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fleming County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.