Marshall County, Iowa Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IA

Low

Composite Risk Score

62.5

National percentile: 62th

Marshall County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 62.5, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $23M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Marshall County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 62.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 7.08 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 6.43 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $268K in expected annual loss and about 15.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $23M in expected annual loss for a population of 40K.

Beyond physical exposure, Marshall County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

History supports the rating: Marshall County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 9 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2024.

Among 99 Iowa counties, Marshall County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $23M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 40K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $4M/yr
High $2M/yr
Medium $268K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Drought High 7.08 / yr$4M
Strong Wind High 6.43 / yr$2M
Winter Weather Medium 15.63 / yr$268K
Tornado Medium 0.60 / yr$4M
Hail Medium 6.16 / yr$926K
Riverine Flood Low 2.43 / yr$10M
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$97K
Landslide Very Low 0.11 / yr$1K
Ice Storm Low 0.56 / yr$84K
Cold Wave Low 7.89 / yr$685K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$57K
Lightning Low 43.05 / yr$93K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$4K
Heat Wave Very Low 4.89 / yr$18K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Marshall County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (9), Severe Storm (8), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
May 2024Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
August 2020Severe StormSevere Storms
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
March 2019FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
September 2018Severe StormSevere Storm and Tornadoes
July 2013Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
August 2011Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
May 2008Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
March 2007Severe StormSevere Winter Storms

Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marshall County?

Marshall County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 62.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Marshall County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $4M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $268K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Marshall County compare to other Iowa counties?

Marshall County ranks #14 of 99 Iowa counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Marshall County had?

FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Marshall County since 1965, most often 9 for flood events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marshall County's $23M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.