St. Joseph County, Indiana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
St. Joseph County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 85.8, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $60M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
St. Joseph County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 85.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 3.32 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 2.74 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.61 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $60M in expected annual loss for a population of 273K.
Beyond physical exposure, St. Joseph County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: St. Joseph County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 92 Indiana counties, St. Joseph County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 3.32 / yr | $16M |
| Hail | High | 2.74 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.61 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.22 / yr | $8M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.64 / yr | $28M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 18.70 / yr | $254K |
| Lightning | Medium | 40.68 / yr | $750K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.10 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.33 / yr | $176K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $42K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $18 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
St. Joseph County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Snowstorm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for St. Joseph County?
St. Joseph County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 85.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in St. Joseph County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $16M EAL), Hail (High, $3M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does St. Joseph County compare to other Indiana counties?
St. Joseph County ranks #6 of 92 Indiana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has St. Joseph County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for St. Joseph County since 1965, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. St. Joseph County's $60M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.