Elkhart County, Indiana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Elkhart County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.7, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $49M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Elkhart County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 84th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 4.90 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 3.26 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.92 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $49M in expected annual loss for a population of 207K.
Beyond physical exposure, Elkhart County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Elkhart County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 4 for snowstorm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 92 Indiana counties, Elkhart County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 4.90 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.26 / yr | $10M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.92 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.23 / yr | $7M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.39 / yr | $23M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 16.68 / yr | $202K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.05 / yr | $993K |
| Lightning | Medium | 39.61 / yr | $413K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.28 / yr | $139K |
| Drought | Low | 1.50 / yr | $115K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $54K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $978 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Elkhart County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (4), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | In-Winter Storm 12/23/98 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Elkhart County?
Elkhart County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Elkhart County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $10M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Elkhart County compare to other Indiana counties?
Elkhart County ranks #7 of 92 Indiana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Elkhart County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Elkhart County since 1965, most often 4 for snowstorm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Elkhart County's $49M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.