Wayne County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 41th
Wayne County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 40.7, 41th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Wayne County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 40.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 41st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Wayne County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.11 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $563K in expected annual loss and about 1.66 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Wayne County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Wayne County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 3 for tornado events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Wayne County ranks #68 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 9.11 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 1.66 / yr | $563K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $2K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.50 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $870K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.95 / yr | $48K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.20 / yr | $395K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $25K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.21 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.52 / yr | $45K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.92 / yr | $114K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 50.02 / yr | $84K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $615 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wayne County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Tornado (3), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2013 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| June 1990 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
| January 1989 | Tornado | Severe Storms & Tornadoes |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wayne County?
Wayne County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 40.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 41th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wayne County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $563K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wayne County compare to other Illinois counties?
Wayne County ranks #68 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wayne County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Wayne County since 1989, most often 3 for tornado events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wayne County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.