Carroll County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 39th
Carroll County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 39.0, 39th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Carroll County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 39.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 39th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 11.64 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $10K in expected annual loss and about 0.16 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $985K in expected annual loss and about 5.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Carroll County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 7 for flood events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Carroll County ranks #70 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 11.64 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.16 / yr | $10K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.84 / yr | $985K |
| Hail | Medium | 3.71 / yr | $578K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 6.32 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.42 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.36 / yr | $5M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.73 / yr | $60K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 5.05 / yr | $168K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $80K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.53 / yr | $27K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 41.16 / yr | $55K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Snowstorm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Snowstorm | Record Snow and Near Record Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 39.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 39th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Landslide (Low, $10K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $985K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other Illinois counties?
Carroll County ranks #70 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1965, most often 7 for flood events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.