Clay County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 41th
Clay County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 41.1, 41th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Clay County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 41.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 41st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.66 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $587K in expected annual loss and about 8.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 13K.
Beyond physical exposure, Clay County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Clay County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 2002, including 2 for biological events and 1 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Clay County ranks #67 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 1.66 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.05 / yr | $587K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.23 / yr | $640K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $2K |
| Hail | Low | 2.88 / yr | $193K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.37 / yr | $667K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.74 / yr | $44K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.34 / yr | $842K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.00 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.62 / yr | $43K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $23K |
| Lightning | Low | 49.91 / yr | $77K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Clay County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 2002, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Snowstorm (1), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Clay County?
Clay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 41.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 41th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Clay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $587K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Clay County compare to other Illinois counties?
Clay County ranks #67 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Clay County had?
FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Clay County since 2002, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Clay County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.