Randolph County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Randolph County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.6, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Randolph County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 5.71 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 11.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 30K.
Beyond physical exposure, Randolph County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Randolph County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 7 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Randolph County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $15M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.71 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.37 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.68 / yr | $27K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.11 / yr | $223K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.89 / yr | $893K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.50 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.26 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $8M |
| Drought | Low | 1.83 / yr | $212K |
| Lightning | Low | 53.21 / yr | $239K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.82 / yr | $75K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $39K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Randolph County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2006 | Severe Storm | Tornadoes and Severe Storms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| May 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Randolph County?
Randolph County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Randolph County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $15M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Randolph County compare to other Illinois counties?
Randolph County ranks #26 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Randolph County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Randolph County since 1969, most often 7 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Randolph County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.