Vermilion County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Vermilion County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.8, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $32M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Vermilion County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 78.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 3.79 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $354K in expected annual loss and about 9.58 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.30 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $32M in expected annual loss for a population of 74K.
Beyond physical exposure, Vermilion County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Vermilion County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 4 for tornado events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2023.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Vermilion County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 3.79 / yr | $8M |
| Winter Weather | High | 9.58 / yr | $354K |
| Drought | Medium | 1.30 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.10 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.84 / yr | $866K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.80 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.42 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $14M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.20 / yr | $3K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.99 / yr | $116K |
| Lightning | Medium | 47.49 / yr | $264K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $42K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Vermilion County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Tornado (4), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2013 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
| May 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 1994 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1990 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Ice Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Vermilion County?
Vermilion County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Vermilion County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $8M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $354K EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Vermilion County compare to other Illinois counties?
Vermilion County ranks #25 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Vermilion County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Vermilion County since 1968, most often 4 for tornado events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Vermilion County's $32M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.