Marion County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 77th
Marion County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.1, 77th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Marion County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 77th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Marion County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.59 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 10.53 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 38K.
Beyond physical exposure, Marion County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Marion County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Marion County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $12M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.59 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.53 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.47 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.46 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.84 / yr | $110K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.14 / yr | $10M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.37 / yr | $4K |
| Drought | Medium | 1.66 / yr | $317K |
| Hail | Low | 3.36 / yr | $295K |
| Lightning | Low | 50.42 / yr | $192K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $26K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.59 / yr | $43K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Marion County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Biological (2), Snowstorm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| April 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| June 1990 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marion County?
Marion County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 77th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Marion County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $12M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Marion County compare to other Illinois counties?
Marion County ranks #28 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Marion County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Marion County since 1990, most often 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marion County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.