Menard County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 29th
Menard County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 28.7, 29th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Menard County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 28.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 29th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $737K in expected annual loss and about 3.84 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $608K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $765K in expected annual loss and about 5.09 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Menard County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Menard County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 4 for snowstorm events and 2 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (tornado), declared in December 2021.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Menard County ranks #82 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 3.84 / yr | $737K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $608K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.09 / yr | $765K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.09 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.05 / yr | $495K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.58 / yr | $945K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.33 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 3.62 / yr | $240K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.63 / yr | $43K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.05 / yr | $24K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.80 / yr | $80K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Menard County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in December 2021. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (4), Tornado (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| December 2006 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Illinois Winter Snow Storms |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
| May 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Menard County?
Menard County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 28.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 29th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Menard County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $737K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $608K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $765K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Menard County compare to other Illinois counties?
Menard County ranks #82 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Menard County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Menard County since 1973, most often 4 for snowstorm events and 2 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in December 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Menard County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.