Marshall County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

27.2

National percentile: 27th

Marshall County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 27.2, 27th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Marshall County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 27.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 27th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 9.00 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $907K in expected annual loss and about 5.45 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $4K in expected annual loss and about 0.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.

Beyond physical exposure, Marshall County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Marshall County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 5 for snowstorm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.

Among 102 Illinois counties, Marshall County ranks #84 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $9M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very High Capacity to recover
Population 12K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $1M/yr
Medium $907K/yr
Low $4K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Drought Medium 9.00 / yr$1M
Strong Wind Medium 5.45 / yr$907K
Landslide Low 0.10 / yr$4K
Cold Wave Low 5.37 / yr$1M
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$338K
Tornado Low 0.40 / yr$850K
Riverine Flood Low 1.00 / yr$4M
Ice Storm Low 0.73 / yr$40K
Heat Wave Very Low 6.42 / yr$169K
Winter Weather Very Low 11.21 / yr$21K
Lightning Very Low 44.92 / yr$57K
Hail Very Low 3.70 / yr$52K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$3K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$1K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Marshall County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (5), Flood (4), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
May 2013FloodSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
March 2011SnowstormSevere Winter Storm and Snowstorm
December 2006SnowstormSnow
September 2005HurricaneHurricane Katrina Evacuation
January 2001SnowstormIllinois Winter Snow Storms
January 1999SnowstormIl-Winter Storm 1/1/99
June 1990Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding
March 1985FloodSevere Storms & Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marshall County?

Marshall County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 27.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 27th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Marshall County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $907K EAL), Landslide (Low, $4K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Marshall County compare to other Illinois counties?

Marshall County ranks #84 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Marshall County had?

FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Marshall County since 1974, most often 5 for snowstorm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marshall County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.