Pike County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

30.3

National percentile: 30th

Pike County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 30.3, 30th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Pike County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 30.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 30th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Pike County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $21K in expected annual loss and about 0.61 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 4.15 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 9.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.

Beyond physical exposure, Pike County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Pike County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 10 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2023.

Among 102 Illinois counties, Pike County ranks #80 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $10M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Medium Capacity to recover
Population 15K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Low $21K/yr
Medium $1M/yr
Low $1M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Landslide Low 0.61 / yr$21K
Drought Medium 4.15 / yr$1M
Heat Wave Low 9.21 / yr$1M
Cold Wave Low 3.42 / yr$1M
Strong Wind Medium 4.90 / yr$720K
Lightning Low 48.37 / yr$238K
Hail Low 4.02 / yr$256K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$241K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.82 / yr$4M
Tornado Low 0.63 / yr$597K
Winter Weather Low 9.74 / yr$23K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$9K
Ice Storm Very Low 1.32 / yr$15K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$400
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Pike County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (10), Severe Storm (6), Tornado (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
August 2023Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
December 2021TornadoSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
September 2019FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
May 2013FloodSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
March 2011SnowstormSevere Winter Storm and Snowstorm
August 2010Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
June 2008Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
December 2006SnowstormSnow

Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pike County?

Pike County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 30.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 30th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Pike County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $21K EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Pike County compare to other Illinois counties?

Pike County ranks #80 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Pike County had?

FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Pike County since 1965, most often 10 for flood events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in August 2023.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pike County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.