McDonough County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 38th
McDonough County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 37.5, 38th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
McDonough County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 37.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 38th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $975K in expected annual loss and about 4.23 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 9.00 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $584K in expected annual loss and about 3.78 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 27K.
Beyond physical exposure, McDonough County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: McDonough County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1999, including 4 for snowstorm events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2023.
Among 102 Illinois counties, McDonough County ranks #72 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 4.23 / yr | $975K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 9.00 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.78 / yr | $584K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.37 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.29 / yr | $893K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.09 / yr | $148K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $3K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $380K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 11.21 / yr | $62K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.50 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Low | 46.26 / yr | $180K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2.07 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $290 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McDonough County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1999, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (4), Severe Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| December 2006 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Illinois Winter Snow Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McDonough County?
McDonough County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 37.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 38th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McDonough County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $975K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $584K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McDonough County compare to other Illinois counties?
McDonough County ranks #72 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McDonough County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for McDonough County since 1999, most often 4 for snowstorm events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McDonough County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.