Caribou County, Idaho Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ID

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

7.2

National percentile: 7th

Caribou County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 7.2, 7th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Caribou County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 7.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 7th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Caribou County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $558K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $502K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.

Beyond physical exposure, Caribou County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Caribou County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.

Among 44 Idaho counties, Caribou County ranks #38 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $5M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 7K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Low $558K/yr
Medium $502K/yr
Low $1M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Wildfire Low 0.01 / yr$558K
Avalanche Medium 0.03 / yr$502K
Earthquake Low 0.03 / yr$1M
Winter Weather Low 28.46 / yr$109K
Landslide Very Low 3.42 / yr$1K
Lightning Low 36.76 / yr$194K
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$2
Cold Wave Low 0.95 / yr$476K
Drought Very Low 68.24 / yr$3K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.36 / yr$2M
Hail Very Low 0.41 / yr$38K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.36 / yr$19K
Strong Wind Very Low 0.63 / yr$47K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.01 / yr$2K
Tornado Very Low 0.15 / yr$10K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Caribou County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Hurricane (1), Drought (1).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
September 2005HurricaneHurricane Katrina
May 1977DroughtDrought
December 1964FloodHeavy Rains & Flooding

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caribou County?

Caribou County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 7.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 7th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Caribou County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $558K EAL), Avalanche (Medium, $502K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Caribou County compare to other Idaho counties?

Caribou County ranks #38 of 44 Idaho counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Caribou County had?

FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Caribou County since 1964, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caribou County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.