Caribou County, Idaho Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ID
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 7th
Caribou County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 7.2, 7th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Caribou County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 7.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 7th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Caribou County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $558K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $502K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Caribou County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Caribou County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 44 Idaho counties, Caribou County ranks #38 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $558K |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $502K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.03 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 28.46 / yr | $109K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 3.42 / yr | $1K |
| Lightning | Low | 36.76 / yr | $194K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $476K |
| Drought | Very Low | 68.24 / yr | $3K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.41 / yr | $38K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $19K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $47K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $10K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Caribou County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Hurricane (1), Drought (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| May 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| December 1964 | Flood | Heavy Rains & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caribou County?
Caribou County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 7.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 7th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Caribou County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $558K EAL), Avalanche (Medium, $502K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Caribou County compare to other Idaho counties?
Caribou County ranks #38 of 44 Idaho counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Caribou County had?
FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Caribou County since 1964, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caribou County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.