Lincoln County, Idaho Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ID
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 9th
Lincoln County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 9.1, 9th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and volcanic activity exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lincoln County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 9.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 9th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lincoln County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at Very Low risk — $19 in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $61K in expected annual loss and about 11.35 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lincoln County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 44 Idaho counties, Lincoln County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 11.35 / yr | $61K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.94 / yr | $208K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $83K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.78 / yr | $277K |
| Drought | Very Low | 78.98 / yr | $3K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 21.43 / yr | $39K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.52 / yr | $68K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $22 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $8K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $11K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Flood (2), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| December 1964 | Flood | Heavy Rains & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 9.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 9th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL), Volcanic Activity (Very Low, $19 EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $61K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Idaho counties?
Lincoln County ranks #36 of 44 Idaho counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1964, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.