Bear Lake County, Idaho Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ID
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 7th
Bear Lake County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 6.6, 7th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Bear Lake County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 6.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 7th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.10 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $29K in expected annual loss and about 1.04 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $479K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bear Lake County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Bear Lake County has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 44 Idaho counties, Bear Lake County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.10 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.04 / yr | $29K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $479K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.02 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 27.03 / yr | $106K |
| Lightning | Low | 34.38 / yr | $133K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.76 / yr | $274K |
| Drought | Very Low | 78.84 / yr | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.40 / yr | $101K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $9K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $11K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $5K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bear Lake County has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Hurricane (1), Drought (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| May 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bear Lake County?
Bear Lake County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 6.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 7th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bear Lake County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Medium, $1M EAL), Landslide (Low, $29K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $479K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bear Lake County compare to other Idaho counties?
Bear Lake County ranks #39 of 44 Idaho counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bear Lake County had?
FEMA records 4 federal disaster declarations for Bear Lake County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bear Lake County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.