Polk County
Florida — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Polk County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.5, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $213M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 1.00 / yr | $25M |
| Lightning | Very High | 95.66 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | Very High | 0.25 / yr | $92M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $7M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.36 / yr | $65M |
| Tornado | High | 2.02 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.21 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.27 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.20 / yr | $596K |
| Drought | Medium | 14.71 / yr | $533K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.23 / yr | $3K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $281K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Polk County?
Polk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.5 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Polk County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $25M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $6M EAL), Hurricane (Very High, $92M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Polk County compare to other Florida counties?
Polk County ranks #13 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Polk County's $213M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.