Duval County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Duval County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 97.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 97th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 3.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 71.25 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $65M in expected annual loss and about 0.27 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $264M in expected annual loss for a population of 995K.

Beyond physical exposure, Duval County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

History supports the rating: Duval County has received 41 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 22 for hurricane events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.

Among 67 Florida counties, Duval County ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.