Duval County
Florida — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Duval County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.2, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $264M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 3.00 / yr | $26M |
| Lightning | Very High | 71.25 / yr | $4M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.27 / yr | $65M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.46 / yr | $134M |
| Heat Wave | High | 4.58 / yr | $9M |
| Hail | High | 1.76 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | High | 0.44 / yr | $8M |
| Coastal Flood | High | 2.78 / yr | $7M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.94 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $751 |
| Drought | Very Low | 14.88 / yr | $6K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $12K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Duval County?
Duval County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.2 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Duval County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $26M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $4M EAL), Hurricane (High, $65M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Duval County compare to other Florida counties?
Duval County ranks #12 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Duval County's $264M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.