Jefferson County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 39th
Jefferson County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 39.0, 39th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Jefferson County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 39.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 39th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.26 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $114K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $865K in expected annual loss and about 1.49 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jefferson County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Jefferson County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 21 for hurricane events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene (hurricane), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Jefferson County ranks #60 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.26 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $114K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.49 / yr | $865K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.32 / yr | $947K |
| Lightning | Low | 79.23 / yr | $160K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.40 / yr | $172K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.76 / yr | $9K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $50K |
| Drought | Very Low | 18.80 / yr | $15K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.28 / yr | $90K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $37 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $5K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.95 / yr | $15K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jefferson County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Helene in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (21), Severe Storm (8), Tropical Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?
Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 39.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 39th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $114K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $865K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jefferson County compare to other Florida counties?
Jefferson County ranks #60 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jefferson County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County since 1973, most often 21 for hurricane events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.