Gilchrist County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 28th
Gilchrist County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 28.0, 28th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Gilchrist County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 28.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 28th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.23 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $233K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $237K in expected annual loss and about 83.91 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 18K.
Beyond physical exposure, Gilchrist County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Gilchrist County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 18 for hurricane events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Gilchrist County ranks #63 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.23 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $233K |
| Lightning | Medium | 83.91 / yr | $237K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.42 / yr | $150K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.84 / yr | $376K |
| Drought | Low | 16.65 / yr | $22K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $400K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $41K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.73 / yr | $93K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.22 / yr | $27K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $9 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $826 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Gilchrist County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (18), Tropical Storm (5), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
Showing the 10 most recent of 37 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Gilchrist County?
Gilchrist County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 28.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 28th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Gilchrist County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $233K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $237K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Gilchrist County compare to other Florida counties?
Gilchrist County ranks #63 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Gilchrist County had?
FEMA records 37 federal disaster declarations for Gilchrist County since 1973, most often 18 for hurricane events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Gilchrist County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.