Chaffee County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 51th
Chaffee County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 51.1, 51th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Chaffee County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 51.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 51st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $489K in expected annual loss and about 0.59 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.30 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 58.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Chaffee County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Chaffee County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 2002, including 2 for biological events and 1 for coastal storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Chaffee County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 0.59 / yr | $489K |
| Avalanche | Very High | 0.30 / yr | $5M |
| Lightning | High | 58.29 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $236K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.64 / yr | $13M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $183K |
| Hail | Low | 1.08 / yr | $211K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 22.76 / yr | $51K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5 |
| Drought | Very Low | 40.92 / yr | $32K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $125K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $14K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $27K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $38K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Chaffee County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 2002, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1), Snowstorm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2003 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Chaffee County?
Chaffee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 51.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 51th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Chaffee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $489K EAL), Avalanche (Very High, $5M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Chaffee County compare to other Colorado counties?
Chaffee County ranks #21 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Chaffee County had?
FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Chaffee County since 2002, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for coastal storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Chaffee County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.