Morgan County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 52th
Morgan County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 51.9, 52th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Morgan County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 51.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 52nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 6.85 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.60 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 2.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 29K.
Beyond physical exposure, Morgan County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Morgan County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 6 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Morgan County ranks #19 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 6.85 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.60 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.32 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 1.79 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $145K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.58 / yr | $116K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.18 / yr | $9M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.05 / yr | $88K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $184K |
| Lightning | Low | 48.85 / yr | $122K |
| Drought | Very Low | 24.82 / yr | $14K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $66K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $30 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Morgan County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2015 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2003 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| May 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| August 1997 | Flood | Severe Storms, Heavy Rain, Flash Floods, Flooding, Mudslides |
| May 1973 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Snowmelt and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Morgan County?
Morgan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 51.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 52th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Morgan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $3M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Morgan County compare to other Colorado counties?
Morgan County ranks #19 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Morgan County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Morgan County since 1965, most often 6 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Morgan County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.