Grand County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 50th
Grand County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.2, 50th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Grand County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 50.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 50th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.93 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $122K in expected annual loss and about 1.22 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $983K in expected annual loss and about 59.56 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grand County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Grand County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Wildfires (fire), declared in January 2021.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Grand County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very High | 0.93 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.22 / yr | $122K |
| Lightning | Medium | 59.56 / yr | $983K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $441K |
| Hail | Medium | 2.53 / yr | $889K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.46 / yr | $12M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $288K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 26.35 / yr | $39K |
| Drought | Very Low | 40.82 / yr | $20K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $490K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $13K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.51 / yr | $161K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $8K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grand County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Wildfires in January 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2021 | Fire | Wildfires |
| October 2020 | Fire | East Troublesome Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2003 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grand County?
Grand County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 50th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grand County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very High, $5M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $122K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $983K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grand County compare to other Colorado counties?
Grand County ranks #23 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grand County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Grand County since 1977, most often 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Wildfires, declared in January 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grand County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.