Otero County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 51th
Otero County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.7, 51th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Otero County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 50.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 51st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $981K in expected annual loss and about 44.96 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 95.55 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $559K in expected annual loss and about 2.83 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Otero County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Otero County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 2 for biological events and 1 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Otero County ranks #22 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 44.96 / yr | $981K |
| Drought | Medium | 95.55 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.83 / yr | $559K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $205K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.90 / yr | $125K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.68 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.68 / yr | $563K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $7M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $82K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.45 / yr | $446K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $82K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $16 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Otero County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Snowstorm (1), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 1999 | Severe Storm | Co-Flooding 4/30/99 |
| August 1997 | Flood | Severe Storms, Heavy Rain, Flash Floods, Flooding, Mudslides |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| June 1965 | Tornado | Tornadoes, Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Otero County?
Otero County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 51th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Otero County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $981K EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $559K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Otero County compare to other Colorado counties?
Otero County ranks #22 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Otero County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Otero County since 1965, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Otero County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.