Randolph County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Randolph County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.0, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Randolph County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 67.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $704K in expected annual loss and about 1.12 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 2.53 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Randolph County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Randolph County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 15 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Randolph County ranks #27 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.12 / yr | $704K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.53 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.11 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.45 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 7.30 / yr | $309K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.47 / yr | $73K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.09 / yr | $2K |
| Lightning | Low | 58.02 / yr | $186K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $54K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.68 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.28 / yr | $258K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.67 / yr | $35K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Randolph County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (4), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Randolph County?
Randolph County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Randolph County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $6M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $704K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Randolph County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Randolph County ranks #27 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Randolph County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Randolph County since 1969, most often 15 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Randolph County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.