Cross County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Cross County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.9, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Cross County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 64.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $578K in expected annual loss and about 1.12 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $881K in expected annual loss and about 8.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 17K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cross County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Cross County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 11 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Cross County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $11M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.12 / yr | $578K |
| Drought | Medium | 8.10 / yr | $881K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 22.47 / yr | $745K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.81 / yr | $792K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.45 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.40 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $58K |
| Hail | Low | 3.31 / yr | $154K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.50 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.68 / yr | $452K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.16 / yr | $31K |
| Lightning | Low | 58.21 / yr | $92K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cross County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cross County?
Cross County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cross County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $11M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $578K EAL), Drought (Medium, $881K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cross County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Cross County ranks #28 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cross County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Cross County since 1969, most often 11 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cross County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.