Montgomery County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

30.7

National percentile: 31th

Montgomery County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 30.7, 31th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Montgomery County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 30.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 31st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $312K in expected annual loss and about 0.82 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $2K in expected annual loss and about 1.65 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $53K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.

Beyond physical exposure, Montgomery County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Montgomery County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 8 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.

Among 75 Arkansas counties, Montgomery County ranks #64 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $6M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 8K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $312K/yr
Low $2K/yr
Very Low $53K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Ice Storm High 0.82 / yr$312K
Landslide Low 1.65 / yr$2K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$53K
Heat Wave Low 15.56 / yr$249K
Tornado Low 0.49 / yr$697K
Riverine Flood Low 1.68 / yr$4M
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$128K
Strong Wind Low 3.94 / yr$275K
Lightning Low 64.95 / yr$110K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$20K
Winter Weather Low 5.41 / yr$27K
Hail Low 5.29 / yr$89K
Cold Wave Very Low 1.11 / yr$110K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Drought Very Low 20.96 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Montgomery County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (5), Hurricane (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
May 2025FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
August 2020HurricaneHurricane Laura
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2017Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
February 2016Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
June 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
June 2013Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Montgomery County?

Montgomery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 30.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 31th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Montgomery County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $312K EAL), Landslide (Low, $2K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $53K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Montgomery County compare to other Arkansas counties?

Montgomery County ranks #64 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Montgomery County had?

FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Montgomery County since 1968, most often 8 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Montgomery County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.