Desha County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 33th
Desha County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 32.9, 33th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Desha County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 32.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 33rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Desha County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $337K in expected annual loss and about 11.61 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $435K in expected annual loss and about 19.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Desha County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Desha County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Desha County ranks #62 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 11.61 / yr | $337K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 19.84 / yr | $435K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $182K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.54 / yr | $930K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.79 / yr | $58K |
| Hail | Low | 2.83 / yr | $158K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.99 / yr | $265K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.25 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.58 / yr | $205K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 61.48 / yr | $40K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $60 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.79 / yr | $10K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $691 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Desha County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (5), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| July 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Desha County?
Desha County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 32.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 33th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Desha County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $337K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $435K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Desha County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Desha County ranks #62 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Desha County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Desha County since 1973, most often 6 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Desha County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.