Lincoln County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 30th
Lincoln County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 29.8, 30th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lincoln County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 29.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 30th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 8.25 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $140K in expected annual loss and about 1.04 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 13K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lincoln County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Lincoln County ranks #66 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 8.25 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.04 / yr | $140K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 19.68 / yr | $528K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $111K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.38 / yr | $984K |
| Hail | Low | 3.50 / yr | $156K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.38 / yr | $322K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 61.05 / yr | $58K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.74 / yr | $14K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $134K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $54 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| July 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 29.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 30th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $1M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $140K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Lincoln County ranks #66 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1973, most often 9 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.