Monroe County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 37th
Monroe County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 36.5, 37th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Monroe County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 36.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 37th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Monroe County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $169K in expected annual loss and about 1.18 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.44 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Monroe County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Monroe County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 9 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Monroe County ranks #59 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.18 / yr | $169K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.44 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Low | 8.69 / yr | $99K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $46K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 18.79 / yr | $233K |
| Hail | Low | 3.52 / yr | $111K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.15 / yr | $232K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 3.21 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Low | 58.68 / yr | $55K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.58 / yr | $12K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $159K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $31 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Monroe County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (6), Tornado (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| July 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Monroe County?
Monroe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 36.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 37th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Monroe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $169K EAL), Tornado (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Monroe County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Monroe County ranks #59 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Monroe County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Monroe County since 1968, most often 9 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Monroe County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.