Lee County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 40th
Lee County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 40.4, 40th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lee County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 40.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 40th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lee County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $125K in expected annual loss and about 0.98 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.40 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lee County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lee County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Lee County ranks #58 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.98 / yr | $125K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.40 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 23.11 / yr | $375K |
| Drought | Low | 8.67 / yr | $175K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $44K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.58 / yr | $235K |
| Hail | Low | 2.80 / yr | $92K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.47 / yr | $238K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 59.52 / yr | $45K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $75 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.95 / yr | $9K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lee County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Flood (4), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lee County?
Lee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 40.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 40th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $125K EAL), Tornado (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lee County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Lee County ranks #58 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lee County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Lee County since 1973, most often 6 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lee County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.