Lafayette County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 33th
Lafayette County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 33.2, 33th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lafayette County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 33.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 33rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.93 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $869K in expected annual loss and about 27.02 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $403K in expected annual loss and about 5.24 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lafayette County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Lafayette County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 9 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Lafayette County ranks #61 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 0.93 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 27.02 / yr | $869K |
| Hail | Low | 5.24 / yr | $403K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $188K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $218K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 18.68 / yr | $237K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.37 / yr | $320K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.43 / yr | $623K |
| Lightning | Low | 63.18 / yr | $64K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.93 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $46 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.74 / yr | $7K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.79 / yr | $55K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lafayette County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (4), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lafayette County?
Lafayette County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 33.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 33th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lafayette County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $3M EAL), Drought (Medium, $869K EAL), Hail (Low, $403K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lafayette County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Lafayette County ranks #61 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lafayette County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Lafayette County since 1990, most often 9 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lafayette County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.