Prairie County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 41th
Prairie County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 41.4, 41th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Prairie County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 41.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 41st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $317K in expected annual loss and about 1.24 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.51 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Prairie County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Prairie County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 10 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Prairie County ranks #56 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.24 / yr | $317K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.51 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 18.63 / yr | $277K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $50K |
| Hail | Low | 4.04 / yr | $158K |
| Drought | Low | 10.98 / yr | $69K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.57 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.49 / yr | $249K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 5.05 / yr | $22K |
| Lightning | Low | 58.13 / yr | $66K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $109 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $183K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Prairie County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Prairie County?
Prairie County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 41.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 41th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Prairie County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $317K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Prairie County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Prairie County ranks #56 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Prairie County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Prairie County since 1969, most often 10 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Prairie County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.