Carroll County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Carroll County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.6, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Carroll County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 64.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.95 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $33K in expected annual loss and about 1.27 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 28K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carroll County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 11 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Carroll County ranks #30 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.95 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.27 / yr | $33K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.47 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.21 / yr | $120K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.47 / yr | $766K |
| Lightning | Medium | 58.17 / yr | $410K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.79 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $538K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.11 / yr | $588K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.11 / yr | $7M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $81K |
| Hail | Low | 7.04 / yr | $241K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $51K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 11.44 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (3), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $33K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Carroll County ranks #30 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1969, most often 11 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.