Santa Cruz County
Arizona — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Santa Cruz County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.3, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $42M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | High | 3.96 / yr | $16M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $8M |
| Lightning | High | 57.01 / yr | $631K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.75 / yr | $18M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.05 / yr | $3K |
| Drought | Low | 55.56 / yr | $117K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $110K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $67 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.90 / yr | $163K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.66 / yr | $10K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $3K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $18K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $30K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Santa Cruz County?
Santa Cruz County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Santa Cruz County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (High, $16M EAL), Wildfire (High, $8M EAL), Lightning (High, $631K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Santa Cruz County compare to other Arizona counties?
Santa Cruz County ranks #10 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Santa Cruz County's $42M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.