Santa Cruz County

Arizona — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

Medium

Composite Risk Score

88.3

National percentile: 88th

Santa Cruz County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.3, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $42M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Expected Annual Loss $42M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 48K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Heat Wave
High $16M/yr
Wildfire
High $8M/yr
Lightning
High $631K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Heat Wave High 3.96 / yr $16M
Wildfire High 0.01 / yr $8M
Lightning High 57.01 / yr $631K
Riverine Flood Medium 2.75 / yr $18M
Landslide Low 1.05 / yr $3K
Drought Low 55.56 / yr $117K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr $110K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr $67
Strong Wind Low 0.90 / yr $163K
Winter Weather Very Low 3.66 / yr $10K
Hurricane Very Low 0.05 / yr $3K
Hail Very Low 0.37 / yr $18K
Tornado Very Low 0.04 / yr $30K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Cold Wave Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Ice Storm Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr $0

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Santa Cruz County?

Santa Cruz County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Santa Cruz County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (High, $16M EAL), Wildfire (High, $8M EAL), Lightning (High, $631K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Santa Cruz County compare to other Arizona counties?

Santa Cruz County ranks #10 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Santa Cruz County's $42M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.