Bristol Bay Borough, Alaska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AK
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 1th
Bristol Bay Borough faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 1.2, 1th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and volcanic activity exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $1M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Bristol Bay Borough is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 1.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 1st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $865K in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at Very Low risk — $9 in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $491K in expected annual loss and about 2.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $1M in expected annual loss for a population of 843.
Beyond physical exposure, Bristol Bay Borough has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Bristol Bay Borough has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 2 for biological events and 1 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 30 Alaska counties, Bristol Bay Borough ranks #27 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.06 / yr | $865K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.84 / yr | $491K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $18K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 13.92 / yr | $16K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 6.65 / yr | $915 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $70 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bristol Bay Borough has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Severe Storm (1), Freezing (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Avalanches |
| June 1974 | Freezing | Freeze in Spawning Areas of Red Salmon |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bristol Bay Borough?
Bristol Bay Borough has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 1.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 1th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bristol Bay Borough?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $865K EAL), Volcanic Activity (Very Low, $9 EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $491K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bristol Bay Borough compare to other Alaska counties?
Bristol Bay Borough ranks #27 of 30 Alaska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bristol Bay Borough had?
FEMA records 4 federal disaster declarations for Bristol Bay Borough since 1974, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bristol Bay Borough's $1M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.