Morgan County, Alabama Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Morgan County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.8, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $65M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Morgan County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 88.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 0.68 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 62.27 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $65M in expected annual loss for a population of 123K.
Beyond physical exposure, Morgan County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Morgan County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for severe storm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene (hurricane), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Alabama counties, Morgan County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.68 / yr | $24M |
| Lightning | High | 62.27 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $6M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.74 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 7.58 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.39 / yr | $24M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.26 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 4.37 / yr | $214K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.75 / yr | $220K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $417K |
| Hail | Low | 4.69 / yr | $213K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $38K |
| Drought | Low | 26.94 / yr | $106K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $190 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Morgan County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Helene in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Hurricane (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| January 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irma |
| April 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Morgan County?
Morgan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Morgan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $24M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Morgan County compare to other Alabama counties?
Morgan County ranks #8 of 67 Alabama counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Morgan County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Morgan County since 1973, most often 10 for severe storm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Morgan County's $65M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.