Mobile County, Alabama Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AL
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 98th
Mobile County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 98.0, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $298M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Mobile County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 98.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 98th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Mobile County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very High risk — $178M in expected annual loss and about 0.24 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 84.83 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 9.98 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $298M in expected annual loss for a population of 415K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mobile County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Mobile County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 25 for hurricane events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene (hurricane), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Alabama counties, Mobile County ranks #1 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Very High | 0.24 / yr | $178M |
| Lightning | Very High | 84.83 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 9.98 / yr | $7M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.68 / yr | $81M |
| Tornado | High | 1.17 / yr | $10M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | High | 4.77 / yr | $6M |
| Drought | Medium | 16.67 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.85 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 1.71 / yr | $953K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 0.72 / yr | $204K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.90 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.53 / yr | $374K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.30 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mobile County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Hurricane Helene in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (25), Severe Storm (9), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| January 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| December 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Zeta |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Michael |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Michael |
| November 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nate |
Showing the 10 most recent of 40 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mobile County?
Mobile County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.0 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mobile County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Very High, $178M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mobile County compare to other Alabama counties?
Mobile County ranks #1 of 67 Alabama counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mobile County had?
FEMA records 40 federal disaster declarations for Mobile County since 1969, most often 25 for hurricane events and 9 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mobile County's $298M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.