Baldwin County, Alabama Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AL
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Baldwin County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.7, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $237M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Baldwin County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 96.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 97th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very High risk — $159M in expected annual loss and about 0.24 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 84.29 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 1.34 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $237M in expected annual loss for a population of 231K.
Beyond physical exposure, Baldwin County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Baldwin County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 23 for hurricane events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene (hurricane), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Alabama counties, Baldwin County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Very High | 0.24 / yr | $159M |
| Lightning | Very High | 84.29 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | High | 1.34 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 9.29 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.96 / yr | $48M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | High | 3.68 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.88 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.81 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Medium | 15.58 / yr | $664K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $916K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.29 / yr | $4K |
| Hail | Low | 1.46 / yr | $414K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 0.69 / yr | $86K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.18 / yr | $77K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Baldwin County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Hurricane Helene in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (23), Severe Storm (8), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Michael |
| November 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nate |
| October 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nate |
| September 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irma |
| May 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 38 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Baldwin County?
Baldwin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.7 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Baldwin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Very High, $159M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $4M EAL), Tornado (High, $9M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Baldwin County compare to other Alabama counties?
Baldwin County ranks #3 of 67 Alabama counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Baldwin County had?
FEMA records 38 federal disaster declarations for Baldwin County since 1969, most often 23 for hurricane events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Baldwin County's $237M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.