Elmore County, Alabama Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 72th
Elmore County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 72.2, 72th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $29M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Elmore County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 72.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 72nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Elmore County's expected losses come from heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $779K in expected annual loss and about 66.73 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 1.46 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $29M in expected annual loss for a population of 88K.
Beyond physical exposure, Elmore County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Elmore County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 10 for hurricane events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene (hurricane), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Alabama counties, Elmore County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 9.00 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 66.73 / yr | $779K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.46 / yr | $19M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.43 / yr | $10K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.55 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $973K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.22 / yr | $786K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $89K |
| Drought | Low | 40.28 / yr | $259K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.37 / yr | $647K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.42 / yr | $36K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.63 / yr | $122K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Elmore County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Hurricane Helene in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Severe Storm (8), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| January 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| December 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Zeta |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nate |
| September 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irma |
| January 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Elmore County?
Elmore County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 72.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 72th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Elmore County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Lightning (High, $779K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $19M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Elmore County compare to other Alabama counties?
Elmore County ranks #25 of 67 Alabama counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Elmore County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Elmore County since 1975, most often 10 for hurricane events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Elmore County's $29M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.