Niobrara County, Wyoming Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 3th
Niobrara County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 3.3, 3th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Niobrara County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 3.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 3rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $310K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $40K in expected annual loss and about 17.26 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $522K in expected annual loss and about 4.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 2K.
Beyond physical exposure, Niobrara County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Niobrara County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 23 Wyoming counties, Niobrara County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $310K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 17.26 / yr | $40K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.47 / yr | $522K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $328 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $45K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.03 / yr | $68K |
| Drought | Very Low | 105.30 / yr | $9K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $81K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 43.39 / yr | $28K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $691K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.47 / yr | $5K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.88 / yr | $13K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Niobrara County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Flood (2), Severe Ice Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2015 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 1999 | Severe Ice Storm | Wy - Winter Storm 10/5/98 |
| May 1978 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding & Mudslides |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Niobrara County?
Niobrara County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 3.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 3th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Niobrara County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $310K EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $40K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $522K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Niobrara County compare to other Wyoming counties?
Niobrara County ranks #23 of 23 Wyoming counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Niobrara County had?
FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Niobrara County since 1978, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Niobrara County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.