Hot Springs County, Wyoming Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 16th
Hot Springs County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 16.1, 16th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Hot Springs County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 16.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 16th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $95K in expected annual loss and about 3.05 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Low risk — $30K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $98K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hot Springs County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Hot Springs County has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 2 for biological events and 1 for fire events. The most recent was Red Canyon Fire (fire), declared in August 2025.
Among 23 Wyoming counties, Hot Springs County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 3.05 / yr | $95K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.07 / yr | $30K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $98K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $352K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.21 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Low | 34.47 / yr | $112K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.75 / yr | $291K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $49K |
| Drought | Very Low | 73.69 / yr | $929 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $63K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $27K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 12.50 / yr | $936 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hot Springs County has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Red Canyon Fire in August 2025. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Fire (1), Flood (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | Fire | Red Canyon Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 1978 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding & Mudslides |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hot Springs County?
Hot Springs County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 16.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 16th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hot Springs County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $95K EAL), Avalanche (Low, $30K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $98K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hot Springs County compare to other Wyoming counties?
Hot Springs County ranks #21 of 23 Wyoming counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hot Springs County had?
FEMA records 4 federal disaster declarations for Hot Springs County since 1978, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for fire events. The most recent was Red Canyon Fire, declared in August 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hot Springs County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.