Teton County, Wyoming Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 71th
Teton County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 70.6, 71th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $40M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Teton County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 70.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 71st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Teton County's expected losses come from avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 2.07 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 38.45 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $139K in expected annual loss and about 6.23 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $40M in expected annual loss for a population of 23K.
Beyond physical exposure, Teton County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Teton County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 2001, including 2 for biological events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 23 Wyoming counties, Teton County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very High | 2.07 / yr | $23M |
| Lightning | Very High | 38.45 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Medium | 6.23 / yr | $139K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.04 / yr | $5M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $86 |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 38.47 / yr | $145K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $6M |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $367K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $111K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $308K |
| Drought | Very Low | 66.04 / yr | $2K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $89K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Teton County has received 5 federal disaster declarations since 2001, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Severe Storm (2), Fire (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2001 | Fire | Wy Wildfire -Green Knoll- July 23, 2001 |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Teton County?
Teton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 70.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 71th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Teton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very High, $23M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $4M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $139K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Teton County compare to other Wyoming counties?
Teton County ranks #2 of 23 Wyoming counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Teton County had?
FEMA records 5 federal disaster declarations for Teton County since 2001, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Teton County's $40M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.