Okanogan County, Washington Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Okanogan County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.2, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $51M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Okanogan County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 89.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $20M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $82K in expected annual loss and about 4.50 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.17 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $51M in expected annual loss for a population of 42K.
Beyond physical exposure, Okanogan County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Okanogan County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 26 for fire events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Swawilla Fire (fire), declared in July 2024.
Among 39 Washington counties, Okanogan County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.02 / yr | $20M |
| Landslide | Medium | 4.50 / yr | $82K |
| Avalanche | High | 0.17 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.96 / yr | $23M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.74 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $620K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $166 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.94 / yr | $657K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 22.24 / yr | $89K |
| Lightning | Medium | 15.78 / yr | $253K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.10 / yr | $140K |
| Drought | Very Low | 7.18 / yr | $3K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $20K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Okanogan County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Swawilla Fire in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (26), Severe Storm (6), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Fire | Swawilla Fire |
| April 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| July 2023 | Fire | Eagle Bluff Fire |
| January 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2022 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Snowstorms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding |
| August 2021 | Fire | Muckamuck Fire |
| July 2021 | Fire | Cedar Creek Fire |
| April 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2021 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Cold Springs/Pearl Hill Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Okanogan County?
Okanogan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Okanogan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $20M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $82K EAL), Avalanche (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Okanogan County compare to other Washington counties?
Okanogan County ranks #16 of 39 Washington counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Okanogan County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Okanogan County since 1972, most often 26 for fire events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Swawilla Fire, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Okanogan County's $51M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.