Lincoln County, Washington Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 55th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 54.9, 55th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lincoln County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 54.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 55th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $50K in expected annual loss and about 0.68 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 5 for fire events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds (fire), declared in February 2021.
Among 39 Washington counties, Lincoln County ranks #29 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Medium | 0.68 / yr | $50K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.29 / yr | $3M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $403K |
| Hail | Low | 0.18 / yr | $290K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.43 / yr | $5M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.24 / yr | $41K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.43 / yr | $172K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.20 / yr | $165K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 13.29 / yr | $14K |
| Drought | Very Low | 14.17 / yr | $2K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 12.68 / yr | $19K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $30K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Flood (4), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2018 | Fire | Angel Springs Fire |
| April 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, Mudslides |
| January 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| October 2015 | Fire | Wildfires and Mudslides |
| July 2014 | Fire | Watermelon Hill Fire |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Record and Near Record Snow |
| January 2009 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Landslides, Mudslides, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 54.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 55th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $5M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $50K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Washington counties?
Lincoln County ranks #29 of 39 Washington counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1977, most often 5 for fire events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.