Douglas County, Washington Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Douglas County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.1, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and volcanic activity exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Douglas County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 74.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Douglas County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; volcanic activity (eruptions producing ashfall, lava, and pyroclastic hazards) at Very Low risk — $1K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.20 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 43K.
Beyond physical exposure, Douglas County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Douglas County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 10 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds (fire), declared in February 2021.
Among 39 Washington counties, Douglas County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.20 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $18M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.44 / yr | $677K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 14.57 / yr | $67K |
| Hail | Low | 0.11 / yr | $266K |
| Lightning | Low | 11.49 / yr | $222K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.85 / yr | $1K |
| Drought | Very Low | 14.82 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.11 / yr | $126K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $27K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $541 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Douglas County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (10), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Cold Springs/Pearl Hill Fire |
| July 2020 | Fire | Road 11 Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2018 | Fire | Grass Valley Fire |
| July 2018 | Fire | Chelan Hills Fire |
| August 2015 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2015 | Fire | Chelan Fire Complex |
| September 2012 | Fire | Barker Canyon Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Douglas County?
Douglas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Douglas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $3M EAL), Volcanic Activity (Very Low, $1K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Douglas County compare to other Washington counties?
Douglas County ranks #23 of 39 Washington counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Douglas County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Douglas County since 1972, most often 10 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Douglas County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.