Chelan County, Washington Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · WA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 91th
Chelan County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.9, 91th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $89M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Chelan County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 90.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 91st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $35M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $142K in expected annual loss and about 3.98 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.27 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $89M in expected annual loss for a population of 79K.
Beyond physical exposure, Chelan County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Chelan County has received 52 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 33 for fire events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (flood), declared in April 2026.
Among 39 Washington counties, Chelan County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.02 / yr | $35M |
| Landslide | Medium | 3.98 / yr | $142K |
| Avalanche | Very High | 0.27 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.46 / yr | $41M |
| Volcanic Activity | Low | 0.01 / yr | $15K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | High | 9.93 / yr | $841K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.66 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 26.39 / yr | $164K |
| Hail | Low | 0.07 / yr | $466K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.10 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $17K |
| Drought | Very Low | 7.83 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $74K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $52K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Chelan County has received 52 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (33), Severe Storm (7), Flood (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| December 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2025 | Fire | Lower Sugarloaf Fire |
| March 2022 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Snowstorms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding |
| August 2021 | Fire | Twentyfive Mile Fire |
| July 2021 | Fire | Red Apple Fire |
| September 2020 | Fire | Apple Acres Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2018 | Fire | Cougar Creek Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 52 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Chelan County?
Chelan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 91th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Chelan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $35M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $142K EAL), Avalanche (Very High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Chelan County compare to other Washington counties?
Chelan County ranks #11 of 39 Washington counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Chelan County had?
FEMA records 52 federal disaster declarations for Chelan County since 1972, most often 33 for fire events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Chelan County's $89M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.