Warren County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 32th
Warren County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 31.6, 32th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Warren County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 31.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 32nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Warren County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $21K in expected annual loss and about 0.40 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $263K in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $279K in expected annual loss and about 3.33 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 41K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Warren County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Warren County ranks #63 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.40 / yr | $21K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $263K |
| Drought | Low | 3.33 / yr | $279K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.21 / yr | $10M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $672 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.23 / yr | $446K |
| Lightning | Low | 39.56 / yr | $272K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $265K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.82 / yr | $594K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.03 / yr | $65K |
| Hail | Low | 3.27 / yr | $200K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $26K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $451K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $7K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.95 / yr | $78K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Snowstorm (4), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| February 2011 | Fire | Smith Fire |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 31.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 32th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $21K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $263K EAL), Drought (Low, $279K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other Virginia counties?
Warren County ranks #63 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1972, most often 6 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.